Is China a Bubble...?

 

 

Glencores commodity billionaires face their reckoning - Financial Times
As Longview Economics points out, China was responsible for nearly all (and for some commodities more than 100 per cent of) the rise in global demand for copper, aluminium, steel, tin and coal between 2000 and 2010. .. more

Bears put dollar on track for record lows
Financial Times .. more

Chris Watling: Riding the commodity super cycle
Financial Times Market Insight Column .. more

Chris Watling: US debt puts strain on dollar
Financial Times Market Insight Column .. more

Chris Watling Video: High risk of equity sell-off
equity markets have become complacent with a number of indicators pointing to a sell-off of up to 15 per cent... .. more

Chris Watling - guest host on CNBCs Squawk Box Europe
Double Dip Unlikely.. .. more

Chris Watling - secular western equity bear market to continue
...on CNBCs Squawk Box Europe .. more

High hopes, low returns - The Economist
"...Chris Watling of Longview Economics, a consultancy, points out that commodity and equity markets seem to be negatively correlated. The commodity boom of 1968-80 coincided with a bear market for equities. As raw-materials prices fell in the 1980s equities started a long bull run, peaking in 2000. Commodities have since taken off again, and the MSCI World stockmarket index is below its March 2000 high..." .. more

The Feds Next Stimulus: Curbing Commodities - Wall Street Journal
"...Oil costs amount to 5.3% of global GDP, according to Longview Economics—not the 7% of mid-2008, but still well above year-ago levels..." .. more

Market a Spoiled Baby Crying to ‘Daddy Bernanke’: CNBC
"...The sell-off witnessed across the world in the last few trading sessions is a classic secular bear market sell-off according to Chris Watling, the CEO of Longview Economics who thinks another round of quantitative easing is on the cards..." .. more

Market Still Has Further To Fall - CNBC
"The current market jitters are part of a long term bear market cycle which could last until 2020, an economist told CNBC Thursday..." .. more

Chris Watling comments on CNBC
Equity market outlook from a 2 week, 2 month & longer term perspective .. more

Eurozone recession on the cards while Western stagflation looms
A recession in the Eurozone seems likely despite companies in the region having strong balance sheets and cash flows .. more

Market volatility here to stay...
I do expect to see some continued volatility in the markets for quite some time," Vahan Janjigian, chief investment officer at Greenwich Wealth Management, told CNBC Friday. Chris Watling, managing director at Longview Economics, joined the discussion. .. more

We are halfway through the commodity super cycle
Speaking at the Objective Capital conference yesterday, Chris Watling, CEO of Longview Economics said the environment was good for commodities .. more

Value Fund believers struggle to keep the faith
Since 2000, there have been 13 days when the S&P 500 lost more than 5 per cent .. more

Decline and Fall
Chris Watling of Longview Economics doesn’t advise betting the house on China. He told a panel at Global Commodities Week in London on Tuesday that there are 70 million unoccupied homes in the country, reflecting a speculative bubble. As he put it: “Perhaps Rome can’t be built in a day, but in China it takes two weeks”. .. more

Market Watch
Chris Watling says "You get recessions when companies are overstretched and monetary policy is tightened. In fact in the US, monetary policy is loose, companies have lots of cash. Its basically not a recessionary environment, and there wont be a double-dip recession, unless we get the disaster scenario in Europe. .. more

Relief at prospect of China’s ‘soft landing’
It is dangerous to put too much weight on what is still an illiquid market. .. more

Euro Zone Break-Up Still Worst-Case Scenario
Things are happening but we havent really had the conclusive things that we need. There was great hope and then it faded," Chris Watling, chief executive of Longview Economics, told CNBC .. more

How is the world economy doing?
There is a further argument here, expressed in a paper from Chris Watling of Longview Economics. This is that, in addition to this fundamental case, there is the argument about sentiment. He calculates an underlying valuation for share prices based on a number of factors and then looks to see whether they are cheap or expensive from an historical perspective. As you can see from the small chart, shares now are undervalued and at a .. more

The Independent
I have been looking at some work by Chris Watling at Longview Economics, who notes that the ratio between earnings and house prices has averaged 4.1 over the past 25 years. In the mid-1990s it was 3.1 times, and it peaked at 5.7 times in 2007/8. It is now back to 4.4 times, and he projects that it will be back to the long-term average in another year, maybe two, as a result of increases in earnings and some shading back of prices. .. more

Money Marketing
Longview Economics economist Harry Colvin says: “Investors should not be investing in the US on a five-year or 10-year view. .. more

Wall Street Journal
Chris Watling, who runs research firm Longview Economics, identifies three periods in the past 80 years where episodes of ultra-loose U.S. monetary policy have coincided with upswings in the commodity-price cycle. These encompass the 1930s through the 1940s, the late 1960s through the 1970s, and the current period since 1999. .. more

Credit Writedowns
I caught this video on Chris Watling about the Kondratiev wave of interest rate cycles via Global Macro Monitor and thought I would post it. CNBC explains the video this way: .. more

CNBC
We are now “very close to the end” of gradually lower interest rates, according to Chris Watling, chief executive of Longview Economics .. more

Financial Times
Chris Watling, of Longview Economics, shows that Swedish households cut their debt by 44 per cent of gross domestic product in seven years during their 1990s credit crisis .. more

The Economist
Chris Watling of Longview Economics points out there has been a remarkable regularity to the past three cycles—a 29-year downtrend, followed by a 32-year uptrend and another 31-year downtrend lasting to the present. .. more

The Independent
Interestingly, as Chris Watling of Longview Economics points out, you can have both bull and bear equity markets within a bull or a bear bond market. Thus the recent long bull market in bonds had a bull market in equities that lasted from the middle of the 1970s to 2000, then a bear market from then till 2008. .. more